На главную



About the Energy Strategy of Russia

Covering a giant part of Eurasian continent and being a neighbor of South Asia Russia can become a solid logistic link between countries and continents full of energy resources. Territorially I mean the Middle East and Central Asia as well as Western Siberia and the shelf of Arctic Ocean. All of them form some kind of main resource base of the continent stretching along its “median range”. And because of that from here one should direct transport flows both to the West – to Europe as well as to the East – to Asia and the Pacific Region.

About Resource Nationalism

The changing world has reminded: national factor is getting the most important in energy policy of producing countries. It becomes such in connection with the fact that mineral resources are not renewable. They naturally become more expensive. So grow consumer’s fears to become dependent on producers. Optimal way out of the situation is in realizing equal interdependence of both sides.

About Competition

Competition is won by the one who is prompter, more beneficial as partner, who received the most powerful political support (since all resource projects in the world are political inherently).

About Character of the Partnership of Producers and Consumers of Hydrocarbon Resources

Equal partnership of producers and consumers of hydrocarbons is very much obstructed by an outlived perception of surrounding environment by some Europeans. Yes due to historic developments of Rome’s Empire, Spain, Britain, Netherlands, France and some other countries a big part of Europe for centuries lived due to active development of giant (often lying outside Europe but rich with different resources) territories. And though the world has changed a lot during last decades the phantom of the West’s previous attitude to resource producers lets itself be known.

About Criteria of Russia’s Economic and Political Influence

In the 1950-ties – 1960-ties there was not enough oil in the country even for inner consumption but the nuclear energy, hydroelectric power, sea and ocean fleet (including ice-breaking fleet) not to speak about space and military industries were developing.

About Russia’s entrance into OPEC

Certainly we will be better understood by representatives of oil producing countries. Joint actions will become more effective since it is a rather close community. But in “the Eight”, for example, we will be distinctly considered as an integral part of the cartel and strictly as a producing country (and lobby for other such countries). This is a normal pragmatic function but not quite appropriate for the image of Great Russia. Thinking about the future one should consider not only the benefit not only the material but also a moral-status aspect …

About World Crisis

The present world crisis quite vividly highlighted main economic problems of planetary scale not only the current problems but also the future ones. It unequivocally hinted that the exit out of a really acute crisis situation may be found only on the basis of serious qualitative changes in many spheres of our activities. And if we achieve that we will be able to solve the tasks of innovational renewal of global energy in compliance with the requirements of world community and, it goes without saying, of Russia as the part of it.

About Iraq’s Energy Situation

If the Middle East with its oil and gas wealth quite justifiably can be called the modern world’s solar plexus then Iraq is its most important component which in many respects determines normal functioning of oil and gas complex of this region.

About Lukoil Winning a Tender in Iraq

Russian oil giant winning the rights to develop one of the richest Iraqi oil fields also confirms correctness of Russian political position that can be reduced to the principle “not to interfere in inner conflicts, not to obstruct Iraq’s national development, but rather try to constructively facilitate it. And Moscow’s write off of Iraqi debts has revealed it.

On Significance of Gas OPEC

Gas OPEC first of all is needed to solve the conflict between gas producers and consumers. It is not so important who will head this body. At present consumers fear that producers will get together, reach an agreement and “press” them by the price. But these fears are groundless. Gas market is fractionary so that one can not speak about monopoly prices yet. The main task of gas OPEC will be not how to increase or decrease the volumes of gas production (as OPEC decides on oil), but how to change relations between producers and consumers of hydrocarbon resources.

On Forming of a United Economic Area in the CIS Countries

It suffices to turn to the newspapers of 70-ties - 80-ties of the last century to understand: conflicts on market soil were practically ceaseless in Europe. Why? Because the process of forming a market contains inevitably a conflict of interests. And this can be called a blessing, since collision, contradiction of interests enriches the picture of economic order, helps to build a market community. If, of course, both sides aspire this and not resolving their own problems at the expense and to the detriment of their neighbors. Constructive dialogue is the basis for successful development of common economic space.

About the Gas Axis “Russia – Turkmenistan - Iran”

Forging relations not simply and not only with Iran, but along the axis Russia-Turkmenistan-Iran (I would call it the gas axis) presents a unique opportunity, a unique chance to forge interaction and work out coordinated actions in determining participants in gas extraction and the ways to deliver the blue fuel. And - the most important – in determination of volumes of gas production and prices of its delivery.

About the fortune of Pipeline Systems

The epoch of big pipeline systems is not finished but is coming to end. Systems of regional and local purpose have been and will be for a long time yet - decades – profitable. But projects of great pipeline systems today have to be recalculated tens of times as gas transportation for long distances – is not a cheap type of business. Liquefaction of gas is also an expensive process, though technologies are being improved and equipment is becoming cheaper. It is the competitiveness that matters. In some countries they do not yet renounce pipelines, but “the yoke” under the pressure of liquefied gas can already hardly keep balance.

About significance of Russia’s presence in the Caspian Sea Region

If one speaks about the Caspian Sea region as a whole, Russia has been for a long time lagging behind her energetic partners in the Caspian Sea region in starting producing projects. We should not have been stingy and long ago should have started to invest financial resources into them. In the 90-ties I talked about the necessity to invest 2-3 billions US$ in Turkmenistan’s, Kazakhstan’s and Azerbaijan’s projects. In such case our business would have long ago settled steadfastly in these republics. Now one must invest by 3-4 times more but we still lag behind.

About european gas market

Europe has been and remains one of the most profitable consumers including consumers of gas. And Russia has been rather seriously represented on the European gas market that caused much discontent of consumers fearing so called Russian dictation. After 2008 we have decreased the volumes of exported gas and that of course created quite significant problems for us. Especially, to compare with other suppliers supporting this market. Notwithstanding Europe is of permanent and extremely big interest both in pipeline gas export as well as in oil export.

About the “Оil Peak”

Now about the oil peak. This is a wrong interpretation of reality, a very serious mistake: they arithmetically add production of operating oil fields and state: “Well, that’s the peak. It will come literally tomorrow. And then there will be a decline of production”. As I already said, explored oil reserves are increased faster than production grows. The gist of the matter is not in underground “storerooms” exhaustion but in lack of investments and better technologies. Just in this. Because of that “the arithmetic peak” will constantly retreat in time until the moment when world oil consumption stays at a relatively stable (necessary) level. Hence production will also reach not a peak but a settled “shelf”.

On development perspectives of world energy

What will influence energy as a whole? Without any doubt the gas factor (and everything that relates to LNG). ). Relation of profitability of using these or those hydrocarbons will be determining volumes of production. Shale gas and possible production of liquid fuel from coal in industrial volumes will also exert certain influence. In the end so called alternative sources of energy: low carbon, hydrogen, nuclear, solar, tidal, biologic, wind and so on will not stay aside.

About alternative sources of energy

Alternative does not mean opposite, it simply means different. Each type of energy has its own niche, its own sector on the Earth. Is there “competition” between low hydrocarbons and high hydrocarbons? No, there is not. And so it is everywhere. You will not draw a gas pipeline through thousands of kilometers to tundra to heat yarangas but a reindeer breeder will thank you for an energy-saving power generator. You will not draw an electric power line to Himalayas: it makes sense there to rely upon solar cells or - in the future – upon mini hydrogen reactors.

On the fortunes of the hydrocarbon cycle

The Hydrocarbon cycle will not only vanish in the coming century but will strengthen its positions in its market sector owing to scientific and technological progress, more effective utilization of every ton of oil and every cubic meter of gas, to the broadening of the list of products and to creation of ecologically pure production processes.

On economic development of the Far East

Is there a limit to development and investments in the Far East so as to avoid what happened to KVZD (the rail road from Russia to North Eastern China built by Russia in 1897-1903 and in 1952granted to PRC by the Soviet Union – Editor’s note) that was built by us but in 1945 became the Chinese Changchun railroad? There is a limit. It is a limit of time and of politico-economic approaches. If you fail to fill “emptiness”, others will do it. Suppose if you fail to produce service equipment you will have to buy the Chinese.